For the last week leading up to the first tournament of the season,
its officially been upside down day for 7 days. Outside of Florida the
entire country is experiencing winter weather with reports from clients
in Wisconsin that they have up to an inch and a half of ice. On
everything. Meanwhile, in Central Florida where anglers will launch from
downtown Kissimmee Lakefront Park with a full field expecting to fish
in conditions that usually would be windy, cold, rainy, they will enjoy
lows of 61 degrees to start and and blustery high of 82. Weather that
fits more along with November or March.
South
winds out of Miami will continue to impact the temperatures and
ultimately destroy any anglers hopes of fishing shallower than 4 feet in
search of bedding bass or doing what Florida is famous for, catching
big bass in the grass. The conditions will make for a challenging event
that will possibly highlight some of the competitors that have traveled
from Northern lakes where open water is more of their comfort zone.
The
upside of having a tournament on the Kissimmee Chain of Lakes is that
there are no shortage of big bass and there will be a good number of
Pros who find them and make the event as exciting as it always is when
Bassmaster comes to town.
So, what are the bass doing and how will they probably be caught?
For
the last 2 months bass have been residing in 4-5 feet of water along
with the forage they have been feeding on. During the last full moon
they were gorging as they went into a full blown spawn with water
temperatures dropping to 62 degrees. The coldest we have seen this
winter. But it was a quick wave of spawners that only lasted a day which
worked out great for my client pictured, Kent took advantage of by
landing this massive 10 lb 2 oz Toho trophy.
That
quick burst of spawning activity was followed by a rise in water
temperatures that have the lakes running at 71 degrees at the time of
this writing. Fog and cloud cover have helped to hold temperatures down
but the fog may play into the tournament with a delayed launch. The good
news is that if you can find the bass in an area they are feeding in,
there will be a wad of them that can hold up for the entire three day
tournament as the weather looks to be holding steady rather than turning
drastically like it can in Florida.
This might
be the most I've ever written about the weather but it will be a large
factor for this tournament. But enough about that.
Lake
conditions are great with water quality above average on all lakes.
Hydrilla was sprayed again in October but only Cypress and Lake
Kissimmee show the results from that. Lake Toho, which always factors
into a win for this tournament has submerged vegetation all over the
lake. Don't be surprised to see some big bags come from 6-8 feet of
water. The bass are there but to be successful, more wind will be needed
to trigger them to feed.
In a recent
tournament on Lake Toho, it was won using a Carolina Rig in open water
hydrilla for a 26lb bag. It was much colder during that tournament but I
expect this technique to still play heavily in who is able to crack the
top ten.
In another first, I'm going to
predict a hard jerkbait could also be a key bait for a high finish on
Toho based on where the bass are positioned and how they are feeding.
Shiners are the key bait right now and few baits mimick them well. A
hard jerkbait is on that tackles that job well. The variety of baits can
range from a floating Rapala, a Bagley Bango Lure, Yo Zuri 3DB to
include a personal favorite, A Bomber Long A.
Another
bait that not many talk about outside of Kentucky and Florida is the 10
inch worm. With light winds expected throughout the tournament, a Zoom
Old Monster could take us back to its glory days of dominating
tournaments with the most fundamental lure ever made. This particular
presentation will require a great deal of confidence from whomever
throws it as it will provide quality bites but not a high number. Missed
fish could be a factor talked about a lot during the weigh in.
Chatterbaits,
Swim jigs and Spinnerbaits are usually good options this time of year
in Florida but I don't expect them to factor in unless winds get above
10 mph this week.
Time for my usual weight
predictions for this tournament. Honestly, I don't want to venture into
throwing numbers out there because fishing based on the last week have
been challenging unless using shiners. That's not unusual for this time
of year but the temps and winds should mean lure fishing is on fire as
well. That hasn't been the case.
But I've never been shy about sticking my neck out so no reason to stop now!
Average
weights for the the top 10 should range from 27lbs as the high and
16lbs at the low. The field will be stacked tight in weights between 13
and 16lbs. The Pro that leads day one will struggle to repeat the same
number over 3 days. Launch times will be huge with bass feeding early
and becoming less active after 10 am. Pros making the run to Kissimmee
or other lakes may end up back in Toho early to try and salvage a limit.
Total winning weight should be around 56 lbs. To be in top ten, 36 lbs
might get someone there.
By Steve Boyd
Owner - Florida Bass Adventures
